If recent
trends in religious switching continue, Christians could make up less
than half of the U.S. population within a few decades.
Most people don’t change their religious identity. But among those who
do, the switch typically happens between the ages of 15 and 29.
Since the 1990s, large numbers of Americans have left Christianity to
join the growing ranks of U.S. adults who describe their religious
identity as atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular.”
The decline of Christianity and the rise of the “nones” may have complex
causes and far-reaching consequences for politics, family life and
civil society.
Highly religious parents tend to raise highly religious children who
are less likely than children of less religious parents to disaffiliate
in young adulthood. As a result, there may continue to be a
self-perpetuating core of committed Christians who retain their religion
and raise new generations of Christians.
A religious revival in the U.S. is not impossible. New
patterns of religious change could emerge at any time. Armed conflicts,
social movements, rising authoritarianism, natural disasters or
worsening economic conditions are just a few of the circumstances that
sometimes trigger sudden social – and religious – upheavals.
These projections indicate the U.S. might be following the path taken over the last 50 years by many countries in the Western Europe that had overwhelming Christian majorities in the middle of teh 20th century and no longer do.
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